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Damn recession

by CDarklock
50 replies
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I mean, today the Dow closed over 11,000 for the first time in almost two years.

When will this horrible time be over?
  • Profile picture of the author Teresa Coppes
    haha

    Unfortunately I see this as just another phase before it plummets again. The recession is not over and I should know, the company I worked for just up and closed on Wednesday last week. No more job for me. Just like that.

    Teresa
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  • Profile picture of the author rondo
    "While the market cheers on the fantastic job "growth" of March 2010, the more astute of us are concerned with a growing tide of personal bankruptcies. March 2010 saw 158,000 bankruptcy filings...."

    It's Impossible To "Get By" In The US | zero hedge


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  • Profile picture of the author KimW
    Even though I'm sure this therad will be gone soon, that's a great post, rondo.
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  • Profile picture of the author 747eagle
    recessions come and recessions go. They have been a regular thing like the tide for a long time now. It is not the end of the world.
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    That's okay Rondo - it's the truth if anyone can handle it.

    I'm just surprised that this would happen - and right during congressional judicial hearings regarding the market. Yeah...um....I don't think it'll stay there for too long either. LOL.
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    A recession is actually good for big businesses. The cost of salaries, rents, services, and supplies will come down and hence increasd profits and thus increased stock prices. More important for them, it will kill off competition from mom and pop businesses that go under.
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    • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
      Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

      A recession is actually good for big businesses. The cost of salaries, rents, services, and supplies will come down and hence increasd profits and thus increased stock prices. More important for them, it will kill off competition from mom and pop businesses that go under.
      But driving down wages due to a spike in the amount of skilled workers in the market due to cuts from mom and pops....and reducing competition is not in any way a good thing
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    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

      A recession is actually good for big businesses. The cost of salaries, rents, services, and supplies will come down and hence increasd profits and thus increased stock prices. More important for them, it will kill off competition from mom and pop businesses that go under.
      WRONG, it is BAD for big business! DOMESTICALLY, salaries are artificially raised(union wages, miniumum pay, etc...). If higher wages drop too low, some may take lower jobs, and fewer new workers come in. It also decreases income which means PRICES must be lowered, though the recession would have ALREADY lowered them! Outsourcing doesn't work, as it exacerbates the decline!

      Salaries can't decline much for the same reason. In the first pass, supplies and rents have ****FIXED**** costs, so the prices can't be lowered much! A lower price with an inflated cost means LOWER profits! Less advertising, etc... means LOWER profits! THAT coupled with LOWER INCOME means a lower value, and lower ability to pay which means LOWER stock prices! HEY, look at INFLATION! Prices go UP, so shouldn't STOCK PRICES? NOPE, they go DOWN! WHY? Because costs and wages go up! AGAIN, in relation, so THAT has no effect, but that drives LOANS up which raises costs and cuts growth!

      HOW do mom and pop businesses go under if all the other stuff you said was true? You just contradicted yourself! They may be less likely to ride out that first pass, but some BIG companies can't either.

      HECK, just look at the past few BIG recessions. BIG companies went bankrupt or ALMOST did.

      Steve
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      • Profile picture of the author myob
        Derek is right. Recessions are actually very good for BIG businesses, because some of the competition gets wiped out. Those who invested in the big companies through the stock market generally did very well. There is no such thing as "fixed" costs as we have seen. Prices dropped sharply across the board. It goes in cycles, and those who see it have made a lot of money.
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        • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
          Originally Posted by myob View Post

          Derek is right. Recessions are actually very good for BIG businesses, because some of the competition gets wiped out. Those who invested in the big companies through the stock market generally did very well. There is no such thing as "fixed" costs as we have seen. Prices dropped sharply across the board. It goes in cycles, and those who see it have made a lot of money.
          Well as long as those with money to jump in the market are happy...then everything is ok. Dont mind the largest group underneat them..the ones who's work actually generated the money to begin with
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        • Profile picture of the author seasoned
          Originally Posted by myob View Post

          Derek is right. Recessions are actually very good for BIG businesses, because some of the competition gets wiped out. Those who invested in the big companies through the stock market generally did very well. There is no such thing as "fixed" costs as we have seen. Prices dropped sharply across the board. It goes in cycles, and those who see it have made a lot of money.
          YEAH, investing during a recession can make a lot of money, prices DROP and can go up.

          So when are you going to buy that home for $10USD? Can you tell me where and how? I mean you said there are NO fixed costs!

          If you pay $1000 for something, there are basically FOUR ways to determine minimum value. That's it, FOUR ways!

          1. REPLACEMENT COST(If the replacement cost is less than $1000, you may have RESISTANCE)
          2. AVERAGE COST(if the current cost is much lower, you may have resistance)
          3. The COST(if the replacement cost is much higher, you may have resistance)
          4. CUT BAIT and sell for what you can(do this enough, and YOU ARE OUT OF BUSINESS!)

          OBVIOUSLY, only 1-3 may be sustained, MAYBE, and there IS a fixed cost. The cost isn't THAT likely to quickly drop, and may be a sign the supplier has picked option #4, which may be a BAD sign and a reason NOT to pick option 1 or 2!

          If you have property with a mortgage of $1500/month, do you REALLY think it is smart to lease it for less than $1500/month?

          YES virginia, fixed costs DO exist! THAT is the reason BANKRUPTCIES exist!

          Steve
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      • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
        Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

        WRONG, it is BAD for big business! DOMESTICALLY, salaries are artificially raised(union wages, miniumum pay, etc...). If higher wages drop too low, some may take lower jobs, and fewer new workers come in. It also decreases income which means PRICES must be lowered, though the recession would have ALREADY lowered them! Outsourcing doesn't work, as it exacerbates the decline!

        Salaries can't decline much for the same reason. In the first pass, supplies and rents have ****FIXED**** costs, so the prices can't be lowered much! A lower price with an inflated cost means LOWER profits! Less advertising, etc... means LOWER profits! THAT coupled with LOWER INCOME means a lower value, and lower ability to pay which means LOWER stock prices! HEY, look at INFLATION! Prices go UP, so shouldn't STOCK PRICES? NOPE, they go DOWN! WHY? Because costs and wages go up! AGAIN, in relation, so THAT has no effect, but that drives LOANS up which raises costs and cuts growth!

        HOW do mom and pop businesses go under if all the other stuff you said was true? You just contradicted yourself! They may be less likely to ride out that first pass, but some BIG companies can't either.

        HECK, just look at the past few BIG recessions. BIG companies went bankrupt or ALMOST did.

        Steve
        Labour and Property Laws are different between US and Hong Kong. For a start, there is no minimum wage and it is much easier to lay off workers in Hong Kong. But I suspect you may be seeing the same stuff. F What I said was exactly what happened to us exactly 10 years ago. The Asian Financial Crisis hit us much worse than this time. Our property prices collapsed by nearly 70%!

        Salaries were cut right across the board. I and others working in the Government took a 6% pay cut and salaries were basically frozen for the next 10 years. Those in private sector were even worse off, some being forced to take a 30 to 50% cut. If they did not agree to that, they would be laid off immediately. The worse affected were those being employed in their first job whose starting salaires were 30% less than those who started a year before. Rents also collapsed at the same time. Even those that were in the middle of a contract were able to force their landloards to cut rent.

        Therefore even if salaries and rents were supposed to be fixed by contract. In practice, employers and tenants were able to get the contracts rewritten to their advantage. Obviously, big businesses have much more negotiating power than mom and pops. Therefore what we normally think as "fixed costs" were not true for salaries and rents.

        Also, what happened during that time was that big businesses continued to invest in their businesses whereas the smaller ones could not. Therefore, when the rebound came, the smaller ones lost customers. Also during the recession, they slashed their prices so hard that many mom and pops were driven out of business. I am sure much of this was done on purpose since the anti-monopoly or unfair trade practices law are not that strong in Hong Kong.

        Within a couple of years, the stock market was achieving all time highs again. Whereas unemployment remained high and salaries low. Morover, property prices and rents remained in the dodrums for another few years. Even now, property prices are not back to those in 1997 although it is now probably the highest in the world. The income gaps between the rich and poor widened substantially during this period.

        As to why banks were not as affected in Hong Kong that time. It was probably that the rules governing property loans were far stricter. For example, a 30% down payment is required to buy a property. This was probably what saved the economy from total economic collapse.

        Derek
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  • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
    There's a lot more money out here for us ( online business people ) without a recession.

    I'm certainly ready for another American Golden Age and it is my fondest hope.

    TL
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    • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
      Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

      There's a lot more money out here for us ( online business people ) without a recession.

      I'm certainly ready for another American Golden Age and it is my fondest hope.

      TL
      yeah but if you think about it, its finite.

      People who have money the 'standard' way, arent digging into IM. Its people who are scrambling to find ways to create income now.

      If they are scrambling, that means their income is about to run out. If that group doesnt get work, there's no money to buy IM stuff. When it comes down to using money for a wso or food..the wso is probably going to get pushed to the back burner
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      • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
        Originally Posted by Michael Motley View Post

        yeah but if you think about it, its finite.

        People who have money the 'standard' way, arent digging into IM. Its people who are scrambling to find ways to create income now.

        If they are scrambling, that means their income is about to run out. If that group doesnt get work, there's no money to buy IM stuff. When it comes down to using money for a wso or food..the wso is probably going to get pushed to the back burner
        Yeh, but I was talking about the consumers, the civilians not selling how to make money stuff.


        It is better for us marketers if there wasn't a recession right?



        Question???


        Do you think there will be another American Golden Age like it was from about 1950 to maybe even 1990??


        TL
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        • Profile picture of the author myob
          Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

          Yeh, but I was talking about the consumers, the civilians not selling how to make money stuff.

          It is better for us marketers if there wasn't a recession right?


          Question???

          Do you think there will be another American Golden Age like it was from about 1950 to maybe even 1990??


          TL
          The unemployment rate is hovering around what, about 11 - 17%. Sell to the 83%+ who are working. Most people are doing quite well, but the doom and gloom always seems to get all the attention.

          The technology, communications, energy, transportation, and medical sectors are going through a type of renaisance right now. And, there are more people starting up their own small businesses than ever before in history.

          This recession has produced a lot of wealth, and you will soon see this wealth being invested in emerging sectors that did not even exist when the recession began.

          You ask about another American Golden Age? Check your history.
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  • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
    Honestly, not without major upheavel. The u.s. economy is shaky and is having its heels nipped at by other rising markets. Add to that the seemingly endless line of individuals and groups that seem to be circling to get their piece and to me it doesnt seem like the golden eggs this goose lays is going to feed everyone forever
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    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by Michael Motley View Post

      Honestly, not without major upheavel. The u.s. economy is shaky and is having its heels nipped at by other rising markets. Add to that the seemingly endless line of individuals and groups that seem to be circling to get their piece and to me it doesnt seem like the golden eggs this goose lays is going to feed everyone forever
      That reminds me of signs I once saw on a road. "Watch out for falling rocks". Well, "Watch out for falling eggs". OH yeah, if the egg falls on you, or near you, the YOKE will be on you!

      This punny reparte isn't really meant to be FUNNY, if you get my meaning.

      Steve
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    • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
      Originally Posted by Michael Motley View Post

      Honestly, not without major upheavel. The u.s. economy is shaky and is having its heels nipped at by other rising markets. Add to that the seemingly endless line of individuals and groups that seem to be circling to get their piece and to me it doesnt seem like the golden eggs this goose lays is going to feed everyone forever

      So you believe the long line of indi's, groups and corps lining up for goodies will prevent us from the new Golden Egg, I mean Age?

      I'd like to know your prediction on the financial future of the U.S.A.


      TL
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      • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
        Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

        So you believe the long line of indi's, groups and corps lining up for goodies will prevent us from the new Golden Egg, I mean Age?

        I'd like to know your prediction on the financial future of the U.S.A.


        TL
        I think that unless the country gets a chance to rebuild, that they will be fighting over a carcass.

        This country has one fundamental problem right now, we dont make anything. The things we make are high tech stuff. Thats great, if all the citizens of the country were scientists. But everything else is imported and its THOSE things being produced and bought..the washers and dryers, stoves..etc. that are going to put people back to work, which puts money in their pockets, which lubes the economy.

        Without a serious rebuild we might as well be a big whorehouse in the middle of disneyland. Everyone coming here to get their piece and be entertained.

        The 'trickle down' theory is b.s. Big companies didnt get big because they look out for the little guy. The little guy looks out for the little guy and if big companies are all thats left, then if you dont own/run a big company, you are a serf.
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          Michael - You're so right about making things. In the 70's we were told (and believed) the US would be a global "service" economy. No more dirty jobs but only white collar customer service....right.

          We could start manufacturing again if we had the guts to slap huge taxes on imported items from China and other cheap suppliers. There is no way around it - getting back to prosperity means seriously adjusting our expectations of how much "stuff" we are entitled to.

          It would mean higher costs for many of the things we buy - but at some point we may need to accept that we don't need a TV in every room or 3000 square feet for two people to live in.

          Do children need 30 cheap toys made in China? How many clothes can you wear? 50% of our population pays no income tax and many of those receive checks (earned income) - at the rate we are going with "services provided" we could soon have 30-40% of the people supporting the other 60-70%. It won't work but changing the status quo will not be easy or comfortable....and we are spoiled and hate to be uncomfortable.

          kay
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          • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
            Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

            Michael - You're so right about making things. In the 70's we were told (and believed) the US would be a global "service" economy. No more dirty jobs but only white collar customer service....right.

            We could start manufacturing again if we had the guts to slap huge taxes on imported items from China and other cheap suppliers. There is no way around it - getting back to prosperity means seriously adjusting our expectations of how much "stuff" we are entitled to.

            It would mean higher costs for many of the things we buy - but at some point we may need to accept that we don't need a TV in every room or 3000 square feet for two people to live in.

            Do children need 30 cheap toys made in China? How many clothes can you wear? 50% of our population pays no income tax and many of those receive checks (earned income) - at the rate we are going with "services provided" we could soon have 30-40% of the people supporting the other 60-70%. It won't work but changing the status quo will not be easy or comfortable....and we are spoiled and hate to be uncomfortable.

            kay
            The country really prospered during the time after the Civil war until the turn of the century and one of the major reasons was because of many protectionist policies.

            TL
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          • Profile picture of the author Michael Motley
            Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

            Michael - You're so right about making things. In the 70's we were told (and believed) the US would be a global "service" economy. No more dirty jobs but only white collar customer service....right.

            We could start manufacturing again if we had the guts to slap huge taxes on imported items from China and other cheap suppliers. There is no way around it - getting back to prosperity means seriously adjusting our expectations of how much "stuff" we are entitled to.

            It would mean higher costs for many of the things we buy - but at some point we may need to accept that we don't need a TV in every room or 3000 square feet for two people to live in.

            Do children need 30 cheap toys made in China? How many clothes can you wear? 50% of our population pays no income tax and many of those receive checks (earned income) - at the rate we are going with "services provided" we could soon have 30-40% of the people supporting the other 60-70%. It won't work but changing the status quo will not be easy or comfortable....and we are spoiled and hate to be uncomfortable.

            kay
            This is completely true. People in this country are fat, lazy and complacent. Our grandparents generation is the last generation really that had to 'fight' for what they had. That generation knew of saving money, didnt buy frivilous crap and could sustain themselves. If you took away xbox service in this country 3/4 of the people under 20 would go into shock. And every kid coming out of college with a degree in basket weaving thinks they should be making 150k a year with no experience..thats while they are waiting for thier chance to be on the latest mtv reality show.

            A perfect example of how jacked up our mindset is in this country is what happened after Katrina. Fema handed out 4k cards to buy essentials. And what did the people do with them? bought friggen gucci purses and bigscreen tv's.

            Personally, i'd like to see this country lock down the borders and focus our attention to what happens here, let everyone else take care of their own messes.
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  • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
    I heard Mr. Soros made a mint on the Asian Financial Crisis.


    TL
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    • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
      Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

      I heard Mr. Soros made a mint on the Asian Financial Crisis.


      TL
      Soros can go to hell. He should see how may lives he ruined, how many people he killed, and how many ophans he produced for sake of making some dirty blood stained money.
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      • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
        Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

        Soros can go to hell. He should see how may lives he ruined, how many people he killed, and how many ophans he produced for sake of making some dirty blood stained money.

        I can dig it.

        TL
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        • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
          Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

          I can dig it.

          TL

          It is not as if he spotted an opportunity and took it. He and others were suspected to be actively involved in causing the crisis in the first place. What they did was

          1. Buy negative futures i.e. they will win if the stock market goes down
          2. Short the local currency
          3. Interest Rates will then go up
          4. Stock market will plunge
          5. Collect money from the futures.

          This was stock market manipulation on a grand scale. They were using this strategy as if Hong Kong were an ATM machine.

          Mahathir, the Malaysian prime minister opened blamed Soros for trying to wreck the Malaysian economy. Soros were also the prime suspect in causing the financial crisis in Hong Kong.
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          • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
            Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

            It is not as if he spotted an opportunity and took it. He and others were suspected to be actively involved in causing the crisis in the first place. What they did was

            1. Buy negative futures i.e. they will win if the stock market goes down
            2. Short the local currency
            3. Interest Rates will then go up
            4. Stock market
            5. Collect money from the futures.

            This was stock market manipulation on a grand scale and this is what caused the crisis in Hong Kong in the first place.
            I have heard exactly that also.

            I think I saw him on 60 minutes saying something like if I didn't do it someone else would have.

            I also heard he made a billion in a couple of days against the British pound.


            TL
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            • Profile picture of the author Kay King
              Most people are doing quite well, but the doom and gloom always seems to get all the attention.
              Really? Where do you live - maybe we should move there.

              But haven't you been posting that same thing throughout the recession? Of course there are those who have not faced serious problems - but there are far too many people who have.

              Refusing to acknowledge a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying all is well doesn't make it so.
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              • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                Really? Where do you live - maybe we should move there.

                But haven't you been posting that same thing throughout the recession? Of course there are those who have not faced serious problems - but there are far too many people who have.

                Refusing to acknowledge a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying all is well doesn't make it so.
                Yeah, people always figure that 17% UNemployment means 83% employment. It DOESN'T! It means 83% are NOT listed as unemployed, and some DID get salary cuts, had their jobs endangered, became UNDER employed, or fell off the roles.

                REMEMBER, a cat is an animal, but an animal is NOT always a cat!

                Steve
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              • Profile picture of the author myob
                Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                Really? Where do you live - maybe we should move there.

                But haven't you been posting that same thing throughout the recession? Of course there are those who have not faced serious problems - but there are far too many people who have.

                Refusing to acknowledge a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying all is well doesn't make it so.
                You are right Kay. I have been very fortunate, but it is more attitude than location. The recession drives small business innovation. From what I have read there are now more than 21 million home businesses in the US and it's growing rapidly.

                This is supposed to be a marketing forum, but I have never seen so much dour negativity and pessimism. Those who saw opportunity during the recession as I have stated all along are now reaping huge rewards not only in the stock market, real estate, investments, but also the boom in new technologies and emerging sectors.

                It's unfortunate that most people have missed it because they were whining and crying about how bad things are instead of siezing upon the explosion by businesses using online marketing tools and high technology communications.

                With less competition because of the recession, companies are now using advanced online marketing techniques for customer acquisition - IM.

                You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
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              • Profile picture of the author storesecured
                Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                Really? Where do you live - maybe we should move there.

                But haven't you been posting that same thing throughout the recession? Of course there are those who have not faced serious problems - but there are far too many people who have.

                Refusing to acknowledge a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying all is well doesn't make it so.
                I agree! I want to go where most people are doing well too! I've seem my friends loose jobs through no fault of their own. They bought their houses honestly, had nice incomes, spent wisely and still lost everything because of the industry in which they worked was tied directly to housing or cars or law.
                So, please, enlighten us! Where is this Utopia?
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                • Profile picture of the author myob
                  Originally Posted by storesecured View Post

                  ...please, enlighten us! Where is this Utopia?
                  Right here - the WF.
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      • Profile picture of the author seasoned
        Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

        Soros can go to hell. He should see how may lives he ruined, how many people he killed, and how many ophans he produced for sake of making some dirty blood stained money.
        Yeah, I hope he does, REAL SOON!

        A lot of people don't seem to realize that the stock market is essentially a closed universe! Stock is USUALLY constant! THAT means that it is generally ***********IMPOSSIBLE*********** for someone to sell at a low price unless someone BUYS at a low price! It is generally ***********IMPOSSIBLE*********** for someone to buy at a high price unless someone SELLS at a high price.

        In other words, if someone buys high and sells low(loses), someone ELSE bought lower and sold higher(gains).

        SO, when some SELL into a selling frenzy, someone else may buy, and LITERALLY clean up.

        HEY, ever see "trading places"? A couple people line up a deal to corner orangejuice. Others find out, intercept it, and give them wrong info. The interlopers basically set things up to where the others pay a LOT for WORTHLESS contracts, and the interlopers relax in a luxery retirement while the others lose EVERYTHING! So YEP, you CAN make a LOT of money. I am STILL kicking myself for not buying BRK.A. in 1987 for about $8K. Right now, it is selling for over $119K! It is still the most expensive stock on the NYSE! It is hard to believe that this quote was AFTER it was DOWN $604USD for the DAY! You read right, over 6 HUNDRED dollars US!

        Still, for that time, things are WORSE!

        BTW Better watch your stock! I just invested another $7800 That is usually a bad sign. I appologize, but the last plummet caused me to take $50,000 out, and delay investing another $6,000, and it is near 4/15. 8-(

        Steve
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        • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
          Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

          Yeah, I hope he does, REAL SOON!

          A lot of people don't seem to realize that the stock market is essentially a closed universe! Stock is USUALLY constant! THAT means that it is generally ***********IMPOSSIBLE*********** for someone to sell at a low price unless someone BUYS at a low price! It is generally ***********IMPOSSIBLE*********** for someone to buy at a high price unless someone SELLS at a high price.

          In other words, if someone buys high and sells low(loses), someone ELSE bought lower and sold higher(gains).

          SO, when some SELL into a selling frenzy, someone else may buy, and LITERALLY clean up.

          HEY, ever see "trading places"? A couple people line up a deal to corner orangejuice. Others find out, intercept it, and give them wrong info. The interlopers basically set things up to where the others pay a LOT for WORTHLESS contracts, and the interlopers relax in a luxery retirement while the others lose EVERYTHING! So YEP, you CAN make a LOT of money. I am STILL kicking myself for not buying BRK.A. in 1987 for about $8K. Right now, it is selling for over $119K! It is still the most expensive stock on the NYSE! It is hard to believe that this quote was AFTER it was DOWN $604USD for the DAY! You read right, over 6 HUNDRED dollars US!

          Still, for that time, things are WORSE!

          BTW Better watch your stock! I just invested another $7800 That is usually a bad sign. I appologize, but the last plummet caused me to take $50,000 out, and delay investing another $6,000, and it is near 4/15. 8-(

          Steve
          What Soros was different. They did not trade stocks but traded stock futures. Stock futures is really nothing but gambling. For every single contract, one side must win and the other side lose. What Soros did was to take bets against the stock market. By shorting the Hong Kong dollar, they were able to drive interest rates up and crash the stock market.

          I was in the UK when it was kicked out of the ERM. That actually proved beneficial to the UK in the long term. The Asian Financial Crisis was much more serious. At its height, people were jumping off buildings almost everyday because of stock market losses.



          Derek
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          • Profile picture of the author seasoned
            Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

            What Soros was different. They did not trade stocks but traded stock futures. Stock futures is really nothing but gambling. For every single contract, one side must win and the other side lose. What Soros did was to take bets against the stock market. By shorting the Hong Kong dollar, they were able to drive interest rates up and crash the stock market.

            I was in the UK when it was kicked out of the ERM. That actually proved beneficial to the UK in the long term. The Asian Financial Crisis was much more serious. At its height, people were jumping off buildings almost everyday because of stock market losses.



            Derek
            Yeah, you're right. I should have mentioned that. Of course, my "trading places" scenario WAS futures! The ONLY difference is that THEY dealt with orangejuice, and soros most famous scam was CURRENCY! And that wasn't even hongkong, that was BRITAIN!

            Steve
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            • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
              Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

              Yeah, you're right. I should have mentioned that. Of course, my "trading places" scenario WAS futures! The ONLY difference is that THEY dealt with orangejuice, and soros most famous scam was CURRENCY! And that wasn't even hongkong, that was BRITAIN!

              Steve
              I was in Britain during its currency crisis and that was nothing compared to Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-8. What we had was a wrecking ball that went around almost all emerging markets. Soros admitted that he was involved during the British crisis but he denied responsibility for the Asian crisis.

              That started off in Thailand, went to the affect the other Asean countries. It then went eastwards in Asia affecting Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Following that it went Westwards to Russia and Eastern Europe. Finally Latin America and affected and developed countries were about to be pulled in. Greenspan was forced to cut U.S. interest rates for the sake of the world economy, even though conditions in the US did not warrant it. One could conceivably argue that it was the beginning of the dot com and housing bubbles in the US that eventually led to this present crisis.

              This time round, the crisis affected mainly developed countries whereas developing countries were relatively unscathed. This was partly due to the fact that countries affected by the crisis 10 years ago built up their reserves and shored up their banking systems. So basically, this crisis was a repeat run of what happend in the emerging markets 10 years ago.

              In 1998, China was universally hailed for not letting its currency depreciate. This time round, there is a lot of pressure on China to let its currency to appreciate.

              Derek
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              • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

                I was in Britain during its currency crisis and that was nothing compared to Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-8. What we had was a wrecking ball that went around almost all emerging markets. Soros admitted that he was involved during the British crisis but he denied responsibility for the Asian crisis.

                That started off in Thailand, went to the affect the other Asean countries. It then went eastwards in Asia affecting Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Following that it went Westwards to Russia and Eastern Europe. Finally Latin America and affected and developed countries were about to be pulled in. Greenspan was forced to cut U.S. interest rates for the sake of the world economy, even though conditions in the US did not warrant it. One could conceivably argue that it was the beginning of the dot com and housing bubbles in the US that eventually led to this present crisis.

                This time round, the crisis affected mainly developed countries whereas developing countries were relatively unscathed. This was partly due to the fact that countries affected by the crisis 10 years ago built up their reserves and shored up their banking systems. So basically, this crisis was a repeat run of what happend in the emerging markets 10 years ago.

                In 1998, China was universally hailed for not letting its currency depreciate. This time round, there is a lot of pressure on China to let its currency to appreciate.

                Derek
                Greenspan TRIGGERED the dot com crises!!!!!!! He actually went in front of congress, and said he was going to raise the rates to bring the market DOWN! And he DID! Peripheral companies started going bankrupt ALL OVER because they had tooled up, etc... to support the .com companies and support others that supported them. EVENTUALLY, he started going crazy with LOWERING rates! So don't credit greenspan with ANYTHING good!

                It is ASTOUNDING how many don't realize that some companies support things around them, etc... Take GOOGLE, their campus is large, has other companies, and they have employees going there to work. If THEY shut down, OTHER companies do, fewer people are working, fewer people go there, and that means fewer supplies and food bought, fewer utilities, etc.... So if THEY go bankrupt, it could hurt hundreds of other companies. SOME may be hurt enough to go bankrupt. If THEY do, OTHERS may teeter over the edge, etc.... And HEY, if enough go down, realestate values can fall, and we have seen what THAT can do! THAT is just LOCALLY! What of people that depend on adsense, etc????

                China supposedly now has a trade deficit, so who knows....

                Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
    One answer is for more Americans to start a business of their own - while they hold on to their jobs - an online business.

    It's cheap to start and there are tax breaks.

    Imagine if a million more Americans ( over and above the normal numbers ) decided to conduct an online business.

    ( not mlm related )

    Imagine if we found new ways to keep a lot more of our money here in the USA?

    TL
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    • Profile picture of the author storesecured
      Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

      One answer is for more Americans to start a business of their own - while they hold on to their jobs - an online business.

      It's cheap to start and there are tax breaks.

      Imagine if a million more Americans ( over and above the normal numbers ) decided to conduct an online business.

      ( not mlm related )

      Imagine if we found new ways to keep a lot more of our money here in the USA?

      TL
      Yes, more people need to start businesses. During the depression, they were largely responsible for bringing the country out of it. Between them and the government, this country saw growth.
      BTW, don't for a minute think that this is a recession! This is a depression! The media and the government can continue to spin it any way they want but it doesn't change the fact that it is depression!
      Tell me how many people you know who are recessed and not depressed!
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  • Profile picture of the author GerBot
    Yeah if you keep printing money the price of things go up. Including sticks.
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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      Originally Posted by GerBot View Post

      Yeah if you keep printing money the price of things go up. Including sticks.
      So, invest in sticks, while the price is low.
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  • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
    Originally Posted by CDarklock View Post

    I mean, today the Dow closed over 11,000 for the first time in almost two years.

    When will this horrible time be over?
    These "horrible" times will be over very soon.

    The commercial property sector is about to go through a similar event to the "sub-prime" crisis, and then over the next 12-18 months there is another tranche of "less than prime" residential mortgages that will come to the end of their "honeymoon interest rates", and will find the adjusted rates at a higher level.

    If they no longer have jobs, or their pay has been cut it's going to be brutal.

    Yes, CD, the "horrible" times will be over before you know it, and then begins the horrible times.

    The experts (the ones that DID predict the turmoil of 2007-09) are predicting that the next phase will make the previous one look like the good old days.

    Fasten your seatbelts.
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    So that blind people can hate them as well.
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  • Profile picture of the author Steve Ranger
    Originally Posted by CDarklock View Post

    I mean, today the Dow closed over 11,000 for the first time in almost two years.

    When will this horrible time be over?
    You need to find advantages. If you ever listen to Frank Kern he explains all of this very well.

    Every cloud..
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  • Profile picture of the author Ilya Feynberg
    Originally Posted by CDarklock View Post

    I mean, today the Dow closed over 11,000 for the first time in almost two years.

    When will this horrible time be over?
    I'm not going down the stream of "positive thinking" or any of that crap...but let it go and move on. Yes it will affect you of course in one form or another but you can't directly change anything about it. Just focus on what you can change, on what you can build and where you can take advantage.

    This isn't a doom and gloom stage of our world economies this simply a purging stage. Out with the old and in with the new. History repeats itself, over and over again. When something old dies something new comes to life. The old (in this case many things which in itself is a different post entirely) is dying off now....the new being born every day.

    Choose your side boys and girls.
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  • Profile picture of the author Rounded
    Lets hope that the economy will improve as soon as possible. If it really does get worse than we'll just have to keep living, or at least its just me :p
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  • Profile picture of the author jgand
    We'll all know when good times are here again. Right now there are some encouraging signs, but we still have a long way to go, when the foreclosures stop that is when we will all know that things have truly turned around.
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  • Profile picture of the author André Silverspoon
    Now, because recession is here... we must then learn the art of simple living...be contented with what we have and make the most out of it.
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    • Profile picture of the author Ilya Feynberg
      Originally Posted by André Silverspoon View Post

      Now, because recession is here... we must then learn the art of simple living...be contented with what we have and make the most out of it.
      No we don't. Where does this thinking come from?
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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      Originally Posted by André Silverspoon View Post

      Now, because recession is here... we must then learn the art of simple living...be contented with what we have and make the most out of it.
      Oh, hell no. There are greater opportunities, emerging markets and advances in technology all around us.
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