A few statistical questions... (CTR and traffic)

by SrslySirius

Posted: 14 years ago 15 replies

I'm almost ready to get off my ass, stop reading, and get to work. I've got my plan in place and ready to execute. I'm just missing a small bit of information before I can start researching niches.

Firstly, I need an estimate of what sort of traffic to expect by landing on the front page of Google. I recall seeing a graph somewhere showing that 40-50% of searchers will visit the #1 site, but I don't recall the %s for other positions. Right now I'm operating under the base assumption that landing on the front page (at any position other than #1) will net about 10% of those searchers on average. So perhaps expect about 5k visitors per month for a keyword that gets searched 50k times.

My second question is in regards to CTR on Adsense banners. Years ago, before I was even aware of IM, I made some personal pages and threw up some Adsense banners. These had a CTR of 0.9%, which seems very low. Of course, those banners probably had terrible placement and weren't relevant to the interests of visitors.

I know that a lot of this stuff depends on many factors. CTR for example may vary by niche, I imagine. So if ballpark estimates aren't a reasonable request, please tell me about your personal experiences. I saw a guy boasting a 80% CTR the other day, largely due to banner placement, which just sounds impossible to me. But maybe in some circumstances that is perfectly reasonable. I honestly have no idea. I would like to have at least a general idea of the sort of numbers people have so I can make some kind of projections and plan around them.

#questions #statistical

sbsb

14 years ago

Expect ~1% and you wont be dissappointed. Dont expect more than that unless you have a solid reason to believe it will be higher.

Also as your traffic goes up you will usually have a drop in CTR.

Thanks
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Dellco

14 years ago

I read somewhere it goes like this :

42.13%,
11.90%,
8.50%,
6.06%,
4.92%,
4.05%,
3.41%,
3.01%,
2.85%,
2.99%,

How Much Money is a Top Google Ranking Worth to Your Business?

As you can see, the lions share goes to the top spot, usually.

As for CTR, the more traffic you get, the lower the CTR goes, and the Adsense click value as well. Does not mean a click that used to pay $1 a click will remain $1 for 20 clicks, and you will get $20 for 20 clicks. It never ever works that way.

Also CTR is highest in product heavy sites , but if you get a high CTR that doesn't convert well, you could either get smart priced or banned eventually. Most people with huge traffic have CTRs ranging from < 1% - 3%.

A high CTR will raise a red flag on your account and may prompt a manual review at some point.

Thanks
1 reply

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dburk

14 years ago

Hi SrslySirius,

The average for SERP CTR for the #1 position is approximately 23%. Sorry Dellco your numbers are way off. Those numbers are from the leaked AOL data and if you look closely you will notice those numbers are percentages of clicks, not click through rates, there is a big difference between those two.

Also you should note that while 23% is the average SERP CTR for position #1 it can vary wildly from one keyword to the next. And it can vary a great deal based on how compelling your page title and description snippets are written.

So in your example keyword of 50,000 searches you would need to be ranked #1 to have a chance of getting 5,000 visits, just reaching the 1st page would likely only get you 500-1500 visits if you are not in the top 3.

Don't expect anyone to post actual CTRs for AdSense as it is a violation of the TOS to do so. I would say that 90% is unusually high and that 0.9% is unusually low, but it can vary that much based on different topics and placement of ad units. How well targeted your traffic is also has a great deal to do with your AdSense CTR as well.

Thanks
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Dellco

14 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

The figures I gave were for SERP CTR...NOT Adsense CTR. Those numbers might be for "leaked" AOL data, but my experience across a broad number of sites, also confirm this. I've had listings where I moved from 4th to 2nd, and the difference in traffic, is like thousands.....Just for moving two spots up.

The top listing very often (not always, it depends on niche) gets 40-50% of the traffic because most people will click on the first listing without really bothering to scroll down or go to the second page. Most humans are by nature lazy surfers, and they don't really read through text, they scan through.

I only explained about the Adsense CTR below...

Thanks
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dburk

14 years ago

Originally Posted by Dellco

Hi Dellco,

I'm sorry to have to correct you again, but yes, that is what I thought you meant, CTR for SERP, not AdSense.

Those numbers are not CTRs and that is what I was trying to point out. Those numbers you quoted are percentages of clicks, not CTRs. There is a big difference. About half of all searches do not result in a click at all, so getting 40-50% CTR would be unusual unless you ranked for nearly every position on page 1 of SERP. The #1 position gets slightly less than 23% on average and it is very rare to ever see anything north of 30%.

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Dellco

14 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

Well, my understanding of that list is that it is showing the average SERP CTR based on data from many, many search keywords, as in how many people click through on a particular listing based on its SERP ranking. I don't get what you are talking about, sorry.

And what I am positive about is that the 1st spot averages 40-50% of all the clicks on the searches for a keyword, and it's not 23%. And a SERP click through on a listing just means what it is - Traffic. The higher you are up, the more traffic you get, with top spot getting a big percent because the CTR is high for the top spot.

I agree with the page....

Based on this data, if you are ranking 8, 9, or 10 you may be able to increase your traffic for that keyword 1,400% by ranking #1. Even jumping from #8 to #3 can triple your traffic.

Thanks
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dburk

14 years ago

Originally Posted by Dellco

Hi Dellco,

The source you cited clearly states that those numbers are percentage of clicks, not percentage of impressions. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding of the definition of CTR (Click-Through-Rate) is the percentage of impressions that resulted in a click. And it is calculated by dividing the number of clicks by the number of impressions.

Clicks ÷ Impressions = CTR

Assuming I got that formula correct and using the raw data from the source you cited for your data lets do the math, shall we?

Using the source you cited, position #1 got 2,075,765 clicks out of 9,038,794 searches.

2,075,765 ÷ 9,038,794 = 22.96506%

Please tell me where I got it wrong! Did I use the wrong data? Do I not know how to calculate a percentage? Do I have the wrong formula for CTR? Or do I need to return my "defective" calculator? No matter how many times I input the numbers in this darn calculator it never gets over 23%. :confused:

Thanks
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Dellco

14 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

The pie chart only shows the volume of SERP CTR based on the 4,926,623 clicks, that is all. The 4,926,623 clicks is the 23%. But that is not what the article is talking about is it?

You are talking about how many people click on a search result for a search term, so you mean 100% - 23% = 77% just walk away from their search results or search something else.

100% of the 23% is what is represented by that chart. I don't understand why you are arguing semantics here, because this clearly has no bearing on a webmaster, since 77% are going to walk away and not even click on ANY listing, be it the 1st or the 2nd, or the 10th or whatever.....going by your argument.

I thought it should be clear to you and I am friggin sure to all others that all along that article is talking about THE 23% that do click on a SERP listing, and that is what is represented by that big pie chart. That is what is important.

If I don't make sense to you, I give up - It isn't helpful to keep arguing with you about this, and is derailing this thread. I'm done with this.

40-50% of the 23% as the number one spot, I'll take it anyday.....

Thanks

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Fraggler

14 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

Those numbers are not CTRs and that is what I was trying to point out. Those numbers you quoted are percentages of clicks, not CTRs. There is a big difference. About half of all searches do not result in a click at all, so getting 40-50% CTR would be unusual unless you ranked for nearly every position on page 1 of SERP. The #1 position gets slightly less than 23% on average and it is very rare to ever see anything north of 30%.

Going off my Google Webmaster Master tools which tracks - the number of impressions (or times a keyword is searched) and number of clicks with a CTR; the numbers are pretty much identical to the ones in the original post.

In GWT the CTR is not a % of total clicks, it is a % of clicks per total impressions.

For example - I received 480 clicks for a keyword that got 8100 impressions for a CTR of 6%. This keyword was positioned at #6.

You are right that not everyone clicks a result they search for but this is taken into consideration with Google Webmaster Tools. (Total CTR != 100% for the top 10)

40-50% is about right for a #1 spot.

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dburk

14 years ago

[quote=Fraggler;2758195]Going off my Google Webmaster Master tools which tracks - the number of impressions (or times a keyword is searched) and number of clicks with a CTR; the numbers are pretty much identical to the ones in the original post.

In GWT the CTR is not a % of total clicks, it is a % of clicks per total impressions.

For example - I received 480 clicks for a keyword that got 8100 impressions for a CTR of 6%. This keyword was positioned at #6.

You are right that not everyone clicks a result they search for but this is taken into consideration with Google Webmaster Tools. (Total CTR != 100% for the top 10)

Hi Fraggler,

Congratulations, 6% CTR on a #6 position is a great CTR, way above average. You must have done a great job on your page title and description. By the way, was that an indented listing?

Originally Posted by Fraggler

40-50% is about right for a #1 spot.

So honestly, you think that looking at the data for a single keyword at position #6 you can somehow extrapolate that to a 40-50% average for all keywords at position #1. I dunno, it seems like quite a stretch to me. How do you account for the largest dataset available to the public contradicting your assertion?

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Fraggler

14 years ago

Originally Posted by dburk

Hi Fraggler,

Congratulations, 6% CTR on a #6 position is a great CTR, way above average. You must have done a great job on your page title and description. By the way, was that an indented listing?

Thanks, but it isn't out of the ordinary. It was just an example. It was a single listing (not indented).

Originally Posted by dburk

Like I said above, that was just an example. I have keywords at #1 getting click through rates that are in the range of what has been discussed, I have gotten 60% in the past for a couple of keywords.

My keywords that go down from 2 to 10 are also around what has been discussed - including the rise for the last 2 results. I get a higher CTR for a #11 and #12 rank than I do for #7 & #8 - across my own data.

The only time I have heard the ~20% CTR for a #1 site is in regards to that AOL data. Other members of this forum have said they also get a #1 CTR of about 40 to 50%. The data is readily available and unless Google is telling porky pies the numbers are right. (Google would actually have to be understating their search numbers for all of my keywords by 50% to get a CTR of ~20% as real traffic to my site is in-line with their records).

None of what I am getting is out of the ordinary, I have enough sites across enough niches to know what I can expect. My results never shock me.

Thanks

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Lucid

14 years ago

Don is right and Dellco's numbers are off. That 42% is the percentage who click on ANY link, not necessarily the first one. I'm talking about SERP here.

There was this database a few years ago by AOL of 3 months and 2.8 million searches and you can read my analysis of it. That data is fascinating actually. The number of people clicking the first organic link is 25%. Of course, this number is an average. Lots of things can increase or decrease it.

As for Adsense, I don't know since I don't use it. I am however an Adwords advertiser and when using the content network, the very best CTR I've achieved is 2% (text ads only) and most people I know average 1 in 1000 (0.1%). It may be higher for image ads. So when I hear someone say 10% of visitors click on their ads, I'm suspicious. I certainly don't click them that often, hardly ever in fact. Maybe we are not measuring the same thing.

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Dellco

14 years ago

Lucid, even your analysis said that a big percent did not click on any result (50%). And that of the remainder, about half of that click the first result.

The bottom line is - The top spot still gets a much larger share than all the other listings. And isn't that is what's important?

I have moved from top 10 to #1 for a certain keyword and held that #1 spot for years, and along the way I can tell you that the traffic difference between #1 and all the others below is pretty disproportionate. But I don't waste my time counting the numbers, it does nothing for me.

End of the day (I don't know about you), I do not care whether it is 20.23%, 34%, 40.35%, or 50%, but I do know the 1st spot takes a BIG cut and that is what all of us should be aiming for.

I'm through with this argument over mathematics. Better (and more important) things to do.

Thanks
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dburk

14 years ago

Originally Posted by Dellco

The bottom line is - The top spot still gets a much larger share than all the other listings. And isn't that is what's important?

Hi Dellco,

In the context of this thread, where the OP asked how to estimate the potential traffic based on the number of searches, the actual true average CTR is arguably the most useful metric. I believe a specific question calls for a specific answer.

You are talking about how many people click on a search result for a search term, so you mean 100% - 23% = 77% just walk away from their search results or search something else.

Actually no, on average the #1 position gets clicked 23% of the time and the remaining 77% goes in part to the other 9 organic listings, or to an ad, or is simply abandoned without a click. Often people don't see the results they expected with their first query and they will modify the search query, perhaps with more specific keywords, to try for better results.

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Lucid 14 years ago

Bottom line, yes, top spot gets the highest click rate on average. That's where you want to be. Doesn't matter what that actual percentage is.

But I agree with Don. That percentage should be the number of clicks divided by the number of people doing the search. Quoting any other percentage simply confuses people. It confused me because, even though I did the research before, that 42% got stuck in my head. It confuses others because they find in research a keyword getting 1000 daily searches and they expect 420 clicks to their site.
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A few statistical questions... (CTR and traffic)

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